What Experts Are Saying about the 2021 Job Market

 

Earlier this month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their most recent Jobs Report. The report revealed that the economy lost 140,000 jobs in December. That’s a devastating number and dramatically impacts those households that lost a source of income. However, we need to give it some context. Greg Ip, Chief Economics Commentator at the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), explains:

“The economy is probably not slipping back into recession. The drop was induced by new restrictions on activity as the pandemic raged out of control. Leisure and hospitality, which includes restaurants, hotels, and amusement parks, tumbled 498,000.”

In the same report, Michael Pearce, Senior U.S. Economist of Capital Economics, agreed:

“The 140,000 drop in non-farm payrolls was entirely due to a massive plunge in leisure and hospitality employment, as bars and restaurants across the country have been forced to close in response to the surge in coronavirus infections. With employment in most other sectors rising strongly, the economy appears to be carrying more momentum into 2021 than we had thought.”

Once the vaccine is distributed throughout the country and the pandemic is successfully under control, the vast majority of those 480,000 jobs will come back.

Here are two additional comments from other experts, also reported by the WSJ that day:

Nick Bunker, Head of Research in North America for Indeed:

“These numbers are distressing, but they are reflective of the time when coronavirus vaccines were not rolled out and federal fiscal policy was still deadlocked. Hopefully, the recent legislation can help build a bridge to a time when vaccines are fully rolled out and the labor market can sustainably heal.”

Michael Feroli, Chief U.S. Economist for JPMorgan Chase:

“The good news in today’s report is that outside the hopefully temporary hit to the food service industry, the rest of the labor market appears to be holding in despite the latest public health challenges.”

What impact will this have on the real estate market in 2021?

Some are concerned that with millions of Americans unemployed, we may see distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) dominate the housing market once again. Rick Sharga, Executive Vice President at RealtyTrac, along with most other experts, doesn’t believe that will be the case:

“There are reasons to be cautiously optimistic despite massive unemployment levels and uncertainty about government policies under the new Administration. But while anything is possible, it’s highly unlikely that we’ll see another foreclosure tsunami or housing market crash.”

Bottom Line

For the households that lost a wage earner, these are extremely difficult times. Hopefully, the new stimulus package will lessen some of their pain. The health crisis, however, should vastly improve by mid-year with expectations that the jobs market will also progress significantly.

Source: Keeping Current Matters | The KCM Crew 01212021

Will Forbearance Plans Lead to a Tsunami of Foreclosures?

 

At the onset of the economic disruptions caused by the COVID pandemic, the government quickly put into place forbearance plans to allow homeowners to remain in their homes without making their monthly mortgage payments. Today, almost three million households are actively in a forbearance plan. Though 29.4% of those in forbearance have continued to stay current on their payments, many have not.

Yanling Mayer, Principal Economist at CoreLogic, recently revealed:

“A distributional analysis of forborne loans’ payment status reveals that more than one third (39.1%) of all forborne loans are now 150+ days behind payment, while as many as 1-in-4 (25.5%) are 180+ days past due.”

These homeowners have been given permission to not make their payments, but the question now is: how many of them will be able to catch up after their forbearance program ends? There’s speculation that a forthcoming wave of foreclosures could be the result, and that could lead to another crash in home values like we saw a decade ago.

However, today’s situation is different than the 2006-2008 housing crisis as many homeowners have tremendous amounts of equity in their homes.

What are the experts saying?

Over the last 30 days, several industry experts have weighed in on this subject.

Michael Sklarz, President at Collateral Analytics:

“We may very well see a meaningful increase in the number of homes listed for sale as these borrowers choose to sell at what is arguably an intermediate top in the market and downsize to more affordable homes rather than face foreclosure.”

Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American:

“The foreclosure process is based on two steps. First, the homeowner suffers an adverse economic shock…leading to the homeowner becoming delinquent on their mortgage. However, delinquency by itself is not enough to send a mortgage into foreclosure. With enough equity, a homeowner has the option of selling their home, or tapping into their equity through a refinance, to help weather the economic shock. It is a lack of sufficient equity, the second component of the dual trigger, that causes a serious delinquency to become a foreclosure.”

Don Layton, Senior Industry Fellow at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University:

“With a greater cushion of equity, troubled homeowners have dramatically improved options: a greater ability to access funding (e.g. home equity lines) to keep paying monthly expenses until family finances might recover, improved ability to qualify for and support a loan modification, and, if push comes to shove, the ability to sell the home and monetize their increased net worth while reducing monthly payment obligations. So, what should lenders and servicers expect: a large number of foreclosures or only a modest increase? I believe the latter.”

With today’s positive equity situation, many homeowners will be able to use a loan modification or refinance to stay in their homes. If not, some will go to foreclosure, but most will be able to sell and walk away with their equity.

Won’t the additional homes on the market impact prices?

Distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) sell at a significant discount. If homeowners sell instead of going into foreclosure, the impact on the housing market will be much less severe.

We must also realize there is currently an unprecedented lack of inventory on the market. Just last week, realtor.com explained:

“Nationally, the number of homes for sale was down 39.6%, amounting to 449,000 fewer homes for sale than last December.”

It’s important to remember that there weren’t enough homes for sale even then, and inventory has only continued to decline.

The market has the potential to absorb half a million homes this year without it causing home values to depreciate.

Bottom Line

The pandemic has led to both personal and economic hardships for many American households. The overall residential real estate market, however, has weathered the storm and will continue to do so in 2021.

Source: Keeping Current Matters | The KCM Crew 01132021

6973 BRIAR HILL DR Bartlett, TN 38135

Property Site: http://tour.remax-tennessee.com/home/ZRNRPE/6973-BRIAR-HILL-DR-Bartlett-TN-10091487

Recently Renovated 4BR/2BA Home in Easthill~Large, Open Great Room w/Fireplace~Charming Eat-In Kitchen w/Lots of Cabinet Space + Pantry~Laundry Room Off Kitchen~Four Spacious Bedrooms + 2 Full Baths (1 En-Suite Bath + 1 Shared Bath)~4th Bedroom Can Be Used as Bonus Room~Huge Fenced-In Backyard~AND MORE!!

Bedrooms: 4

Bathrooms: 2

Square feet: 1,800

Price: $195,000

For more information about this property, please contact Jennifer Carstensen at 901-685-6000 or jennifer@livelovememphis.com. You can also text 6645066 to 67299 (Message and Data Rates May Apply, see terms and privacy policy).

See more listings at: jcarstensen.remax-tennessee.com

MLS ID: 10091487

https://www.facebook.com/jensellsmemphis https://twitter.com/livelovememphis https://www.youtube.com/c/jennifercarstensenmemphisrealestate

66 MONROE AVE Memphis, TN 38103

Property Site: http://tour.remax-tennessee.com/home/AGVTEF/66-MONROE-AVE-Memphis-TN-10091375

Wonderful 1BR/1BA Condo in The Shrine Building in Central Downtown Location~Great Room & Dining Room w/Tons of Natural Light from Large Windows~Eat-In Kitchen w/SS Appliances & Tons of Cabinet Space + Pantry~Spacious Bedroom w/Custom Built-In Cabinets (Can Be Removed) + En-Suite Full Bath~Beautiful Hardwood Floors~Condo Features Sauna, Workout Facility, Indoor Pool + Amazing Rooftop Deck Views of the River~AND MORE!!

Bedrooms: 1

Bathrooms: 1

Price: $165,000

For more information about this property, please contact Jennifer Carstensen at 901-685-6000 or jennifer@livelovememphis.com. You can also text 6641921 to 67299 (Message and Data Rates May Apply, see terms and privacy policy).

See more listings at: jcarstensen.remax-tennessee.com

MLS ID: 10091375

https://www.facebook.com/jensellsmemphis https://twitter.com/livelovememphis https://www.youtube.com/c/jennifercarstensenmemphisrealestate

3 Must-Do’s When Selling Your House This Year

It’s exciting to put a house on the market and to think about making new memories in new spaces. However, despite the anticipation of what’s to come, we can still have deep sentimental attachments to the home we’re leaving behind. Growing emotions can help or hinder a sale depending on how we manage them.

When it comes to the bottom line, homeowners need to know what it takes to avoid costly mistakes when it’s time to move. Being mindful and prepared for the process can help you stay on the right track when selling your house this year.

1. Price Your Home Right

When inventory is low, like it is in the current market, it’s common to think buyers will pay whatever we ask when setting a listing price. Believe it or not, that’s not always true. Don’t forget that the buyer’s bank will send an appraiser to determine the fair value for your house. The bank will not lend more than what the house is worth, so be aware that you might need to renegotiate the price after the appraisal. A real estate professional will help you set the true value of your home.

2. Keep Your Emotions in Check

Today, homeowners are living in their houses for a longer period of time. Since 1985, the average tenure, or the time a homeowner has owned their home, has increased from 5 to 10 years (as shown in the graph below):

This is several years longer than what used to be the historical norm. The side effect, however, is when you stay in one place for so long, you may get even more emotionally attached to your space. If it’s the first home you bought or the house where your children grew up, it very likely means something extra special to you. Every room has memories, and it’s hard to detach from the sentimental value.

For some homeowners, that makes it even harder to negotiate and separate the emotional value of the house from the fair market price. That’s why you need a real estate professional to help you with the negotiations along the way.

3. Stage Your Home Properly

We’re generally quite proud of our décor and how we’ve customized our houses to make them our own unique homes, but not all buyers will feel the same way about your design. That’s why it’s so important to make sure you stage your house with the buyer in mind.

Buyers want to envision themselves in the space so it truly feels like it could be their own. They need to see themselves inside with their furniture and keepsakes – not your pictures and decorations. Stage and declutter so they can visualize their own dreams as they walk down the hall. A real estate professional can help you with tips to get your home ready to stage and sell.

Bottom Line

Today’s sellers’ market might be your best chance to make a move. If you’re considering selling your house, reach out to a local real estate professional to help you navigate through the process while prioritizing these must-do’s.

Source: Keeping Current Matters | The KCM Crew 01042021

Why It’s Important to Price Your House Right Today

Even in today’s sellers’ market, setting the right price for your house is one of the most valuable things you can do. According to the U.S. Economic Outlook by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home prices nationwide are forecasted to increase by 4.5% in 2021. This means experts anticipate home values will continue climbing next year. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist for realtor.com, notes:

“We expect price gains to ease somewhat in 2021 and end 5.7% above 2020 levels, decelerating steadily through the spring and summer, and then gradually reaccelerating toward the end of the year.”

How to Price Your House

When it comes to setting the right price for your house, the goal is to increase visibility and drive more buyers your way. Instead of trying to win the negotiation with one buyer, you should price your house so that demand is maximized and more buyers want to take a look.

As a seller in today’s market, you might be thinking about pricing your house on the high end while so many of today’s buyers are searching harder than ever just to find a home to purchase. But here’s the thing – a high price tag does not mean you’re going to cash in big on the sale. It’s actually more likely to deter buyers.

Right now, even when there are so few houses for sale, your house is more likely to sit on the market longer or require a price drop that can send buyers running if it isn’t priced just right from the very beginning.It’s important to make sure your house is priced correctly by working with a trusted real estate professional throughout the process. When you price it competitively from the start, you won’t be negotiating with one buyer. Instead, you’ll likely have multiple buyers competing for the house, potentially increasing the final sale price.

The key is to make sure your house is priced to sell immediately. This way, it will be seen by the greatest number of buyers. More than one of them may be interested, and it will be more likely to sell at a competitive price.

Bottom Line

Reach out to a local real estate professional to price your house correctly from the start so you can maximize your exposure and your return.

Souce: Keeping Current Matters | The KCM Crew 12282020

1100 GOOD SPRINGS LOOP Unincorporated, TN 38076

Property Site: http://tour.remax-tennessee.com/home/3EFTBC/1100-GOOD-SPRINGS-LOOP-Unincorporated-TN-10090818

One of a Kind Estate 20 minutes from Collierville~Custom Iron Doors Lead to Outdoor Oasis w/Infinity Pool~Outdoor Kitchen w/Motorized Screen & SS Appliances~Huge Great Room w/Vaulted Ceilings & Wet bar~Stunning Kitchen w/Bamboo Lighted Cabinets & Beautiful Granite Counters~Formal Dining Room w/Built-In Cabinets + Lliving Room w/Granite Fireplace~Amazing Master Suite w/ Fireplace + Incredible Shower w/Private Veranda~Media Room~Full 2BR/2BA Guest House w/Kitchen & Living Space~AND SO MUCH MORE!!

Bedrooms: 6

Bathrooms: 8

Square feet: 8,000

Price: $2,000,000

For more information about this property, please contact Jennifer Carstensen at 901-685-6000 or jennifer@livelovememphis.com. You can also text 6631276 to 67299 (Message and Data Rates May Apply, see terms and privacy policy).

See more listings at: jcarstensen.remax-tennessee.com

MLS ID: 10090818

https://www.facebook.com/jensellsmemphis https://twitter.com/livelovememphis https://www.youtube.com/c/jennifercarstensenmemphisrealestate